IHS Markit has predicted another year of global solar growth but there’s some uncertainty dogging the markets of China and India, two of the most crucial (and polluting) regions.
Business intelligence firm IHS Markit’s solar forecast for this year (its 2020 Global Photovoltaic Demand Forecast) predicts a 14% rise in the amount of new solar generation capacity expected this year compared to last year’s results, with IHS predicting that 142 GW of new solar will be rolled out in 2020.
However, a glance at the individual market expectations indicates continuing uncertainty in the world’s biggest solar market, a dramatic slowdown after an impressive 2019 in Europeand a resumption of activity in India which will nevertheless leave the populous nation a mountain to climb to hit its 2022 solar ambition.
Florida, North Carolina and New York join the fray
The U.S. will remain the world’s second biggest solar market this year, according to IHS, with Florida, North Carolina and New York joining the list of key drivers cited by the analyst — behind perennial solar leader California and recent contender Texas.
China concern, European slowdown, India rolls on
While solar installations outside China last year are expected to have grown by as much as 53%, IHS Markit is confident enough to predict only continued “double digit growth” inside China this year. Meanwhile, the report predicted the uncertainty dogging the world’s biggest solar market is likely to continue until the details of the next five-year plan are made public next year.
Noting Europe almost doubled the amount of new solar capacity installed last year, compared to 2018, IHS Markit expects only a 5% year-on-year rise this time around, with the region expected to deploy more than 24 GW of new capacity. Of that figure, around 63% will be accounted for by Spain, Germany, the Netherlands, France, Italy and Ukraine.
After what the market research firm described as a “flat” 2019 for new solar in India – also thanks to policy uncertainty and the impact of protectionist solar import duties – IHS Markit foresees more than 14 GW of new generation capacity will be deployed this year. That sort of return, propelled by cheaper modules and a huge project pipeline, would take India past 46 GW of solar capacity but still leave it well short of its 100 GW aim for 2022.
Although the top ten solar markets will contribute 73% of the world’s new solar capacity this year, according to IHS, new markets will emerge in Southeast Asia, Latin America and the Middle East and “more than 43” nations – will boast more than a gigawatt of installed solar capacity in 12 months’ time.
Edurne Zoco, director of clean technology and renewables at IHS, said in the press release: “If the 2010s were the decade of technology innovation, steep cost reductions, large subsidies and dominance by a few markets, then 2020 marks the decade of emerging unsubsidized solar, diversification and expansion of solar installation demand across the globe, new corporate entry players and increasing competitiveness versus conventional energy sources.”
JANUARY 7, 2020 MAX HALL